We're getting close to Christmas, and I'm feeling a little traditional, so I decided to give you a list of make-or-break players at every position this week, including defense. A stocking stuffer at each position!
'Tis the season for fantasy miracles and potential boom weeks that can carry you into your fantasy championship!
Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams
We don’t traditionally think of him this way, but Stafford is fairly boom-or-bust by nature. It’s easy to miss because he’s an elite quarterback. However, Stafford’s lack of mobility means that to “make” your fantasy lineup, he either needs 300+ yards or a couple of touchdowns. If he throws an interception, can’t break 250 yards or manages just one touchdown, you’re likely getting a low-end QB2 or worse. Stafford has had three games this season finishing as QB30 or lower.
The Rams offense is either clicking on all cylinders or struggling. There’s typically no in-between, hence their constant jostling in the NFC West. The last time we saw Stafford was in a messy, rainy Thursday night game against the 49ers. Stafford had just 16 completions for 160 yards and no touchdowns in a game where Cooper Kupp didn’t catch a single pass. To be fair, conditions weren’t ideal, and both quarterbacks struggled significantly.
Will Stafford make or break your lineup in Week 16?
We’re due for a Matt Stafford boom game, and at first glance, a matchup against the New York Jets seems like a less-than-ideal scenario. However, the Jets defense has been in a tailspin since the firing of Robert Saleh. They’ve allowed strong performances to Mac Jones, Tua Tagovailoa, Anthony Richardson, Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson.
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On a positive note, Aaron Rodgers is on a bit of a hot streak, meaning he should be able to take advantage of an inconsistent Rams defense and push this into a high-volume, back-and-forth game with one of the highest point totals of the week. The only concern is that the game is in New York, which brings potential weather implications. As of now, the forecast is simply cold, with no inclement weather expected, so Stafford should have no issues.
Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns
With Nick Chubb out for the season, Ford is the next man up. I discussed Ford in this week's Pulse Check, recapping his Week 15 performance and potential moving forward. Ford had a strong showing — the best Cleveland has seen in a while — as Chubb had been struggling on the ground and relying on touchdowns. Ford posted 84 rushing yards and a touchdown, including an electric 62-yard run, plus a couple of receptions.
Ideally, I’d like a week to see Ford in a clear lead-back role — especially given Kevin Stefanski’s lack of commitment earlier in the season — and evaluate how this offense operates with Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback. Unfortunately, we don’t have the luxury of time. It’s Week 16, and we’re all in must-win scenarios. With a variety of injuries and underwhelming performances from running backs across the league, many fantasy managers might be considering Ford as a potential starter this week.
Will Ford make or break your lineup in Week 16?
While there are plenty of unknowns heading into this matchup, one thing is certain: Cincinnati’s defense is a complete mess. Running backs have had notable success against them in recent weeks, so we can take a leap of faith that Ford will provide at least a low-end RB2 floor. It’s also worth noting that Ford has decent receiving upside, a critical factor when facing the Bengals. Backs like Tyjae Spears, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren all thrived against them through receptions.
DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Heading into the season, you could’ve given me 1,000 guesses, and I would never have thought DK Metcalf would be a player I’d view as a make-or-break candidate. Unfortunately, since his return from injury, he’s failed to crack the top 30 at receiver and has hit double-digit fantasy points just once. To be fair, this hasn’t been an easy stretch of matchups, but the bigger problem is that while Metcalf is struggling, Jackson Smith-Njigba has essentially taken over as the WR1.
After Smith-Njigba’s breakout performance in Week 9 against the Rams, he has been the complete opposite of Metcalf. Smith-Njigba has posted at least 10 fantasy points in every game since Metcalf’s return, never finishing lower than WR34. Five games is enough of a sample size to suggest we may be witnessing a changing of the guard and a shift in offensive philosophy, leaving Metcalf as the secondary option in an inconsistent offense.
Will Metcalf make or break your lineup in Week 16?
In the past, Geno Smith hasn’t had an issue supplying volume to multiple receivers. However, during this stretch, Smith has failed to exceed 250 passing yards or throw multiple touchdowns in a game. There simply isn’t enough volume to go around, and Metcalf is the one suffering.
Looking at the Week 16 matchup against Minnesota, there are a couple of ways this could play out. Minnesota’s defense has been stout this year, but they do allow volume. While quarterbacks are less than ideal plays against the Vikings, wide receivers can still thrive. Although Metcalf has had a shaky floor, I think he leans more toward hitting double-digit fantasy points this week, making him less of a bust risk based purely on volume and potential game flow.
Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys
Ferguson returned from injury, and while Luke Schoonmaker did an admirable job in his absence, Ferguson is clearly the TE1 in Dallas. Unfortunately, holding that title hasn’t translated into production. Since his strong Week 9 game against Atlanta, Ferguson has gone from a fairly reliable TE1 option to failing to finish inside the top 20 at the position.
It’s likely not a coincidence that Week 9 was the last time we saw Dak Prescott under center. It’s possible Cooper Rush and Ferguson simply don’t mesh. The bigger issue, however, is Rush’s lower passing volume compared to Prescott and Dallas’ fairly average target distribution to tight ends. Low volume plus average distribution equals a middling TE2.
Will Ferguson make or break your lineup in Week 16?
Ferguson has repeatedly dropped in my rankings, but this week he gets a slight boost, thanks to a favorable matchup against Tampa Bay. Tampa has consistently been one of the most generous defenses to passing attacks, including tight ends. It's allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the position this season.
That said, we still need to be cautious. Even in excellent matchups like Cincinnati and Carolina, the Cowboys haven’t pushed significant volume with Rush at quarterback. While a high-volume game for Ferguson is unlikely, a touchdown and favorable game flow make him a viable option this week.
Indianapolis Colts D/ST
We’ve got a special treat this week: for the first time, I’m including a defense in this article!
With so many shaky backup quarterbacks thrust into starting roles across the league, several intriguing streaming defenses have emerged as top-12 options. Fantasy managers face some tough choices in Week 16: do you rely on a traditionally strong defense like Kansas City, facing a Houston offense that’s inconsistent but capable of explosive play? Or do you take a risk on a lesser-regarded defense with an excellent matchup against a turnover-prone quarterback?
The Indianapolis defense has been a mixed bag. They’ve allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks but the 10th-fewest to wide receivers. Against running backs, they’ve given up the eighth-most fantasy points, though Joe Mixon accounted for much of that damage, and they’ve faced overall strong backfields. While I expect Tony Pollard to take advantage of this matchup if he’s active, the damage he does on the ground won’t be enough to negate the potential for multiple turnovers by Mason Rudolph.
Will Indianapolis make or break your lineup in Week 16?
Ideally, we’d love to see Will Levis in this spot, but Rudolph will suffice. Rudolph has thrown at least one interception in every game he’s started this season, totaling five interceptions to just six touchdowns. In only three starts and two partial games, he’s also fumbled four times. Fantasy managers looking for high-upside streaming defenses with the potential to generate turnovers — and maybe even a glorious pick-six — should look to Indianapolis this week.
