DAYTON — As we approach tornado season, the Storm Center 7 team is looking into whether Ohio will see a repeat of 2024′s record-setting tornado season.
After going over the data, we expect 2025 to be another above-average year for severe weather, but likely not as bad as 2024.
The Storm Center 7 team looked at El Niño Southern Oscillation, recent trends, and long-term changes in our local climate to make this prediction.
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La Niña is weak and is expected to continue weakening. So, we do not anticipate the La Niña phase of the ENSO to have much of an impact on our spring and summer weather.
Recent trends suggest that normal activity is becoming the new normal. Ohio averages around 21 tornadoes per year. Each year since 2016 has featured near or above-normal tornado counts. The last two years have been particularly rough with 60 tornadoes in 2023 and 74 last year.
Our climate is changing locally. The numbers don’t lie. Since 1950, our springtime temperature and dew point have rise by .4 degrees and .2 degrees respectively per decade. These changes don’t sound like much, but over time could contribute to more available energy for thunderstorms.
Climate Central shares a similar assessment. They say the Miami Valley is experiencing more “tornado-favorable” days per year. Since tornadoes usually come in bunches on a “tornado favorable” day, even having one or two additional days per year is significant.
The bottom line is there is no reason to expect our above-normal severe weather activity to wind down this season. And when the weather gets rough, Storm Center 7 is here to help keep you safe with weather coverage you can count on.
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